National Risk Register

The National Risk Register is the published form of the government's assessment of what could go seriously wrong in the United Kingdom. The 2025 edition was published by the Cabinet Office on 16 January 2025 as a 187 page document. This page describes what it contains and how it is built.

What it is

The register describes itself as the external version of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA), the government's assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK. The NSRA is an internal, classified document used within government and by local resilience forums and their equivalents in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The register shares as much of it as can be made public.

The 2025 edition includes information about 89 risks within 9 themes: terrorism, cyber, state threats, geographic and diplomatic, accidents and systems failures, natural and environmental hazards, human, animal and plant health, societal, and conflict and instability. The risks included are those that would have a substantial impact on the UK's safety, security or critical systems at a national level.

The register covers acute risks, meaning discrete events that need an emergency response. Chronic risks, long-term challenges that erode the economy, community or way of life, are assessed through a separate process and are not included.

Reasonable worst-case scenarios

Each risk is assessed as a reasonable worst-case scenario. The register says these represent the worst plausible manifestation of that risk once highly unlikely variations have been discounted, and that they are not a prediction of what is most likely to happen. They exist so that planners can prepare in proportion.

How likelihood is scored

Likelihood is the percentage chance of the reasonable worst-case scenario occurring at least once in the assessment period, which is 5 years for non-malicious risks such as severe weather and 2 years for malicious risks such as terrorist or cyber attacks. The percentage is placed on a scale of 1 to 5: a score of 5 means a greater than 25 per cent chance, 4 means 5 to 25 per cent, 3 means 1 to 5 per cent, 2 means 0.2 to 1 per cent, and 1 means less than 0.2 per cent. Malicious risks are assessed through the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment yardstick, balancing intent, capability and vulnerability.

How impact is scored

Impact is assessed across 7 dimensions: human welfare, including fatalities, casualties and the need for evacuation and shelter; behavioural impacts; essential services; economic damage; environmental impact; security; and international impacts. Each is scored 0 to 5 on the scope, scale and duration of the harm and the scores are combined. Both scales are logarithmic, so each step is a large increase, and the risks are plotted on a matrix for comparison.

Who it is for

The publication page says the register is aimed at risk and resilience practitioners, including businesses and voluntary and community sector organisations. The document says plainly that this edition is not targeted at the general public, and that advice for individuals, households and communities is on GOV.UK/Prepare.

How it links to local registers

The register says the local level is critical to the UK's resilience. It counts 38 local resilience forums in England, 4 in Wales, 3 Regional Resilience Partnerships in Scotland and the Emergency Preparedness Groups in Northern Ireland, and says local partners produce community risk registers focused on the highest priority risks in each area. The national register should be read alongside the local one.

How it is kept current

The NSRA now runs as a dynamic process, with risks reassessed more regularly, and the 2025 edition was the first to align with it. The UK Government Resilience Action Plan 2026 Implementation Report states that a refreshed register was published alongside that report, adding risks including digital resilience failure, disruption to data infrastructure and interference in the democratic process. The law section entry gives the 2025 edition's publication details.